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US president’s order to scale back military exercises with S.Korea signals intention to ease tension on Korean Peninsula, return to ‘direct diplomacy’ with Pyongyang: experts_我的网站

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一 | 中国男篮将在北京时间8月28日（0点，客场）和31日（19点30分，主场）迎来世预赛第四窗口期，也是世预赛第二阶段的首次比赛，对手分别是卡塔尔队和黎巴嫩队。对于小组排名靠后的中国男篮而言，能否拿下这两场比赛也直接关乎着争夺2027年男篮世界杯参赛资格的前景。看点一：中国男篮能否两战全胜？由于中国男篮在小组赛也就是世预赛第一阶段的战绩不佳，而第一阶段的战绩将直接带入到世预赛第二阶段，因此，这使得只有3胜3负的中国男篮目前排名F组第5（共6队），排名第6也就是小组倒数第一的沙特同样是3胜3负。

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump cross south of the Military Demarcation Line, after Trump briefly stepped over to the northern side, in the Joint Security Area (JSA) of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized zone (DMZ) on June 30, 2019. Photo: VCG
Just hours before a military exercise between the US and South Korea due to get underway on Monday, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would reduce military exercises with key regional ally Seoul, citing his positive relationship with the North Korean leader and South Korea's lack of assistance with Iran, CNN reported.
Chinese experts see Trump's sudden decision to scale back military drills with South Korea as a signal of his intention to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and possibly return to direct diplomacy with Pyongyang. However, they warned that a carrot-and-stick approach may not work with Pyongyang, which has already seen Washington renege on its commitments. If Trump sincerely seeks peace on the peninsula, returning to the negotiating table with a genuine willingness to engage should be the first step.
Writing on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump said "based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United States has, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea."
"These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful," wrote the US president, noting that since it was too late to cancel the exercises entirely, he had asked Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce" US participation.
The 11-day exercise, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield, was expected to involve about 18,000 South Korean troops. According to the US military, South Korean and US forces planned to conduct live-fire drills to test precision-strike and maneuver capabilities under complex operational scenarios, as well as river-crossing operations and the deployment of pre-positioned military supplies, South Korea's Chosun Ilbo reported.
Trump also reiterated his request for South Korea to help with the US war against Iran. "While somewhat unrelated, I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, 'No thanks!'" Trump wrote.
At a press conference of China's Foreign Ministry on Monday, a reporter also raised Trump's claim that he would scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, citing the high cost of the drills and his good relationship with North Korean leader, and asked how China would support the resumption of dialogue between the US and North Korea. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded, "we have noted the relevant reports. Maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and advancing the political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue serve the common interests of all parties."
South Korean media Yonhap News Agency reported that Trump's instruction came as the situation on the Korean Peninsula remained tense again. The media noted that Trump's move can be seen as a conciliatory gesture toward the North Korea, after the White House repeatedly affirmed that Trump remains open to dialogue with Pyongyang "without any preconditions."
Trump has long sought to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but his first-term diplomatic efforts produced few substantive results. The decision to scale back military exercises with South Korea may therefore signal an intention to send goodwill and return to direct diplomacy with North Korea, an unfinished piece of business from his first term, Song Zhongping, another Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times.
Long-standing tensions between the US and North Korea are a major source of instability on the Korean Peninsula, Lü Chao, an expert on East Asian studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times, noting that the fundamental way to address these tensions is for the two sides to return to the negotiating table and resolve their differences through peaceful dialogue, rather than escalating tensions through displays of military force.
On August 13, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea responded to the scheduled military drills between South Korea and the US. The spokesperson said that "it is our consistent principle of ensuring security to respond to a new level of a threat with a new level of a deterrent. DPRK remains steadfast in its will to frustrate outsiders' hostile acts with the most powerful and overwhelming force and absolutely defend the supreme interests of the state security," according to official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
On Saturday, Trump shared a photo of himself with Kim Jong Un, the top leader of the DPRK on Truth Social, and wrote that he and the North Korean leader "get along GREAT!"
During Trump's first presidential term, he and Kim first met in Singapore in June 2018, marking the first-ever US-DPRK summit. They met again in Hanoi, Vietnam in February 2019, and later that June in the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom, according to Xinhua News Agency.
North Korea's past dealings with the US, particularly the breakdown of bilateral negotiations without substantial progress, have eroded Pyongyang's trust in Washington, Lü said.
Therefore, if Trump genuinely wants to leverage his relationship with the North Korean leader to address tensions on the Korean Peninsula, emphasizing their personal ties alone will not be enough. Washington will need to demonstrate genuine sincerity and back its words with concrete action, according to the expert.
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二 | 排名第4的韩国队虽然也是3胜3负，但他们世预赛第一阶段主客场双杀中国男篮。因此，中国男篮的处境并不理想。根据世预赛晋级规则，第二阶段分组后，每个小组积分排名前三的球队和两个小组里成绩最好的第四名球队晋级世界杯，一共有7个晋级名额。作为2027年男篮世界杯的东道主，卡塔尔男篮自动获得世界杯参赛名额，但他们也需要参加世预赛，只是不占用这7个晋级名额。对中国男篮而言，若想晋级2027年男篮世界杯，就必须争取成为F组的前三。只有这样，中国男篮才能直接晋级。否则，中国男篮即便成为了F组的第四，也需要好于E组第四的成绩，才能获得最后的参赛名额。而从F组第5升至第3难度很大。

三 | 因此，中国男篮若能在本次窗口期两战全胜，排名、战绩和信心都将大幅提升。

四 | 但如果只拿到1胜1负或者两战皆负，那中国男篮的处境会依然艰难甚至更加糟糕。中国男篮本次世预赛的两个对手，阵容上都存在不同程度的短缺。卡塔尔男篮近期的集训阵容缺少了如哈季贝戈维奇（世预赛场均16.6分，全队第二）、贝德里（场均5.7分）、哈里斯（场均8分）等主力，NCAA的穆萨没有回国。卡塔尔男篮此番使用的归化球员是淡出卡塔尔男篮多年的前归化后卫迈克-刘易斯，重金归化的前NBA球员纳恩因伤缺阵。黎巴嫩男篮的核心后卫阿拉基（世预赛场均19.3分5助攻，两项数据都是全队第一）因伤缺阵，归化球员、新疆男篮外援劳森（场均14.3分12篮板，篮板全队第一，得分全队第二）也不会出战。此外，黎巴嫩新星、22岁的卡亚特（场均8.7分7.3篮板，篮板全队第二），上个窗口期表现不错的萨乌德（场均9.7分，上个窗口期单场拿到25分）都将缺席比赛。

五 | 他们的新归化球员芬德伯克和球队的默契程度还有待观察。

六 | 就阵容的完整度来看，中国男篮本次世预赛要占据优势。中国男篮能否两战全胜和提升排名也将在此一举。

七 | 看点二：杨瀚森反弹？杨瀚森上个窗口期在国家队的表现并不理想。两场比赛，他场均登场15.3分钟，但场均只能得到9.5分5.5篮板，攻防两端都没能体现出足够的价值。主场惨败日本队时，他5投3中、6罚3中得到9分7篮板2助攻，出现4次犯规和2次失误。防守端，他脚步慢、防不出去的老问题依然明显，这也导致他被对手后卫多次点名攻击。轮到自己进攻，杨瀚森是越打越着急，甚至出现了篮下转身投篮三不沾的情况。比赛中，他还不止一次出现进攻犯规。整场比赛，杨瀚森的亮点有限。

八 | 拿下中国台北队时，杨瀚森8投4中、4罚2中得到10分4篮板1助攻。虽然数据相比输日本队时变化不大，但全场0犯规、1次失误，明显提升了杨瀚森的效率。比赛中，杨瀚森打得要更加自如，心态也没有那么大的波动。这次世预赛，和国家队合练时间有限的杨瀚森，和队友不够默契、防守移动偏慢、中远投能力不稳定的老问题依然在，关键就看他能否调整好心态？能否用进攻上的优势来弥补防守端的缺陷。